Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration.

This paper studies the role of short-run factors such as business cycles or changes in employment rates in explaining international migration flows. We first derive a model of optimal migration choice predicting that short-run economic fluctuations may trigger migration flows on top of the impact exerted by long-run factors. Second, we empirically test the magnitude of the effect of these short-run factors on migration flows. Our results indicate that aggregate fluctuations and employment rates both affect migration flows. Third, we provide evidence that the Schengen Agreement and the euro significantly raised the international mobility of workers between the member countries.