Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration

Michal Burzynski, Christoph Deuster, Frédéric Docquier, Jaime de Melo

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

his paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on local, interregional, and international migration of workers. For nearly all of the world’s countries, our micro-founded model jointly endogenizes the effects of changing temperature and sea level on income distribution and individual decisions about fertility, education, and mobility. Climate change intensifies poverty and income inequality creating favorable conditions for urbanization and migration from low- to high-latitude countries. Encompassing slow- and fast-onset mechanisms, our projections suggest that climate change will induce the voluntary and forced displacement of 100 to 160 million workers (200 to 300 million climate migrants of all ages) over the course of the 21st century. However, under current migration laws and policies, forcibly displaced people predominantly relocate within their country and merely 20% of climate migrants opt for long-haul migration to OECD countries. If climate change induces generalized and persistent conflicts over resources in regions at risk, we project significantly larger cross-border flows in the future.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationBonn
PublisherIZA – Institute of Labor Economics
Number of pages64
Publication statusPublished - Sep 2019

Publication series

NameIZA Discussion Paper Series
PublisherIZA Institute of Labor Economics
No.12623
ISSN (Print)2365-9793

Keywords

  • climate change
  • migration
  • inequality
  • urbanization
  • conflicts

Cite this

Burzynski, M., Deuster, C., Docquier, F., & de Melo, J. (2019). Climate Change, Inequality, and Human Migration. (IZA Discussion Paper Series; No. 12623). IZA – Institute of Labor Economics. http://ftp.iza.org/dp12623.pdf