Projects per year
We develop an epidemionomic model that jointly analyzes the health and economic responses to the COVID-19 crisis and to the related containment and public health policy measures implemented in Luxembourg. The model has been used to produce nowcasts and forecasts at various stages of the crisis. We focus here on two key moments in time, namely the deconfinement period following the first lockdown, and the onset of the second wave. In May 2020, we predicted a high risk of a second wave that was mainly explained by the resumption of social life, low participation in large-scale testing, and reduction in teleworking practices. Simulations conducted 5 months later reveal that managing the second wave with moderately coercive measures has been epidemiologically and economically effective. Assuming a massive third (or fourth) wave will not materialize in 2021, the real GDP loss due to the second wave will be smaller than 0.4 percentage points in 2020 and 2021.
Bibliographical noteWe acknowledge financial support from the Luxembourg National Research Fund (FNR) under the COVID-19 Fast Track-2 programme (MODVid project – ref. 14854549). This paper was prepared to assist the Task Force for the Coordination of the Public Research Sector in the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Work Package 7 on the socio-economic impact of the crisis, led by Aline Muller). Atte Aalto is supported by FNR (Project code: 13684479). Jorge Goncalves is partly supported by the 111 Project on Computational Intelligence and Intelligent Control (ref B18024). Françoise Kemp is supported by the FNR PRIDE17/12244779/PARK-QC. Stefano Magni and Daniele Proverbio are supported by the FNR PRIDE DTU CriTiCS (ref 10907093). The findings in this paper do not necessarily represent the views of the FNR and the Luxembourg COVID-19 Task Force. Any errors or omissions are the authors’ responsibility.
- Public health
- 1 Finished
15/06/20 → 14/12/20