Demographic Divergence and Inequality in the Next Generation: A Framework and Partial Test.

Demographic transitions can foster both economic growth and economic inequality, but theory and empirical studies have emphasized the former. Yet internal divergence in demographic behavior during national transitions might initiate a vicious cycle of demographic and socioeconomic inequality. This chapter contributes to debates on population change and development by exploring the link between uneven demographic transitions and socioeconomic inequality. Theoretically, we expand classic dilution theory into a framework that accounts for how several features of demographic transitions affect educational inequality among children. We apply this framework to contemporary African transitions. The analyses show the following: (1) Fertility inequality has risen across and within African countries since the 1990s; (2) This demographic divergence was followed by a 13% rise in the inequality in public education resource per child across the region between 1990 and 2005; (3) This resource divergence was driven mostly by cross-country differences in (a) trends in age dependency and then (b) economic growth. It was slowed by some convergence in the relative size of countries and in the share of national education budgets; (4) Within some countries, demographic factors beyond fertility ?including changes in family formation and structure- might also fuel internal inequality in the schooling opportunities of children. We discuss some extensions of our framework and the implications for African development.