Incomplete Ecological Futures

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The scenario planning literature has so far not provided a detailed study of the negative policy consequences which could unfold from an incomplete realization of future scenarios. In order to address this shortcoming, the article analyses four GSG scenarios – Market Forces, Policy Reform, Eco-Communalism, and New Sustainability Paradigm – and associate them with a theory of environmental politics – respectively, the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, the a-growth theory, the degrowth proposal, and ecomodernism. Then, through a literature review of those theories, the article explores the dynamics which could prevent humanity from realizing the visions of sustainable futures enshrined into the four scenarios; by doing so, the article provides a picture of how GSG’s and similar scenarios might become incomplete ecological futures.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)17-38
JournalWorld Futures
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 2 Jan 2020
Externally publishedYes


  • A-growth
  • degrowth
  • ecomodernism
  • scenario planning
  • environment
  • scenario analysis
  • geoengineering

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