The scenario planning literature has so far not provided a detailed study of the negative policy consequences which could unfold from an incomplete realization of future scenarios. In order to address this shortcoming, the article analyses four GSG scenarios – Market Forces, Policy Reform, Eco-Communalism, and New Sustainability Paradigm – and associate them with a theory of environmental politics – respectively, the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, the a-growth theory, the degrowth proposal, and ecomodernism. Then, through a literature review of those theories, the article explores the dynamics which could prevent humanity from realizing the visions of sustainable futures enshrined into the four scenarios; by doing so, the article provides a picture of how GSG’s and similar scenarios might become incomplete ecological futures.
- scenario planning
- scenario analysis