Intertemporal evidence on the strategy of populism in the United States

Gloria Gennaro, Giampaolo Lecce, Massimo Morelli

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

This paper studies the strategic adoption of populist rhetoric in electoral campaigns – i.e., the supply side of populism. We build on existing studies to argue that populist campaigning is more likely to be chosen by politicians who face an electorate characterized by high economic insecurity. We add that two other factors are crucial determinants of the choice of a populist campaign strategy, namely the closeness of the election and the candidate's outsider status. We apply automated text analysis to campaign websites for the 2018 and 2020 congressional elections and construct a continuous index of populism in campaign documents. We provide evidence that indeed outsider candidates in competitive races resort to more populism in response to higher economic insecurity. Drawing connections between theories of voter mobilization and populist discourse, this paper sheds light on how local economic and political conditions are key to understanding the strategic supply of populism.

Original languageEnglish
Article number102853
JournalElectoral Studies
Volume92
Early online date5 Sept 2024
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2024

Keywords

  • American politics
  • Economic insecurity
  • Electoral campaign
  • Mobilization
  • Populism
  • Text analysis

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