Population ageing and the public finance burden of dementia: A simulation analysis

Maria Noel Pi Alperin, Magali Perquin, Giordana Gastón

Research output: Working paper

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Abstract

This paper uses long-term population projections to study the evolution of dementia in Luxembourg through 2070, as well as its impact on public expenditure through healthcare and long-term care. We extend the Giordana and Pi Alperin (2022) model by adding an algorithm to identify individuals suffering from dementia. This allows us to simulate dementia prevalence among individuals aged 50 and more in several scenarios incorporating alternative hypotheses about risk factors, new treatments and comorbidities (including long-run effects of COVID-19). Public health policies reducing stroke and hypertension risk could lower dementia prevalence by 17% and public expenditure on healthcare for dementia patients by a similar amount. A new treatment extending the mild dementia phase could nearly double prevalence and possibly triple the associated healthcare costs. Finally, past exposure to COVID-19 could raise prevalence by 12% to 24% in the medium term and public expenditure on dementia healthcare by 6% to 12%. Public expenditure on long-term care for dementia patients would increase even more, generally doubling by 2070.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationEsch-sur-Alzette
PublisherLISER
Number of pages36
Publication statusPublished - 9 Jan 2023

Publication series

NameWorking papers
PublisherLISER
No.2023-01
ISSN (Electronic)2716-7445

Keywords

  • Dementia
  • Dynamic micro-simulation
  • Healthcare
  • Health-related public expenditure
  • Long-term care
  • Luxembourg
  • SHARE

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