TY - JOUR
T1 - Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy
AU - Mason, Andrew
AU - Lee, Ronald
AU - Olivera, Javier
AU - Members of the NTA Network
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades (1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; (2) GDP will shift toward sub-Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; (3) living standards of working-age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; (4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower-income nations; (5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and (6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional, and global economies.
AB - New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades (1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; (2) GDP will shift toward sub-Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; (3) living standards of working-age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; (4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower-income nations; (5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and (6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional, and global economies.
KW - global economy
KW - population projection
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/c6c7ebe9-2e56-3792-9472-d93e2d570378/
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85133498028&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12469
DO - https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12469
M3 - Article
SN - 0098-7921
VL - 48
SP - 51
EP - 73
JO - Population and Development Review
JF - Population and Development Review
IS - 1
ER -