The future of the temperature–mortality relationship

Hot and cold environments pose challenges to the human body which, if sufficiently severe to overload our evolved capacity for physiological and behavioural adaptation, can lead to morbidity and mortality.1 In response to accumulating evidence of climate warming, a large literature on the epidemiology of ambient temperature quantifies this risk and associated health
burdens.2 When combined with models of the future climate under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations, current risks are used to assess the consequences of alternative mitigation policies. Existing literature has shown considerable heterogeneity in the relationship between temperature and mortality. Multi-country studies have documented differences and similarities at various geographical scales (...)