Migration policies and increased migration pressure after COVID-19

As European countries restart their economies, they will also consider reopening their internal and external borders. What will they do with regard to countries where the Covid-19 is not yet under control? In particular, the control over external borders is expected to remain for a (much) longer period if developing countries are unable to contain the spread of the virus. In particular, European countries, with or with coordination, are likely to close their borders and restrict entry to people from Africa and other poor regions. Such restrictions would affect either the selection of the destination country or the flow of illegal migration given that the pandemic will deteriorate living conditions in poor countries and intensify emigration pressure. Predicting legal and illegal migration flow under different migration policy regimes is important to understand the consequences of external border restrictions and to guide the timing of the reopening of EU borders.