Anticipatory management for sustainable cultivated land transitions: Aligning multifunctional trajectories with adaptive zoning guidance

Rapid regional population shifts and spatial polarization have heightened pressure on cultivated land—a critical resource demanding urgent attention amid ongoing urban–rural transition. This study selects Jiangsu province, a national leader in both economic and agricultural development, as a case area to construct a multidimensional framework for assessing the recessive morphological characteristics of multifunctional cultivated land use. We examine temporal dynamics, spatial heterogeneity, and propose an integrated zoning strategy based on empirical analysis. The results reveal that: (1) The recessive morphology index shows a consistent upward trend, with structural breaks in 2007 and 2013, and a spatial shift from “higher in the east and lower in the west” to “higher in the south and lower in the north.” (2) Coordination among sub-dimensions of the index has steadily improved. (3) The index is expected to continue rising in the next decade, though at a slower pace. (4) To promote coordinated multidimensional land-use development, we recommend a policy framework that reinforces existing strengths, addresses weaknesses, and adapts zoning schemes to current spatial conditions. This research offers new insights into multifunctional cultivated land systems and underscores their role in enhancing human well-being, securing food supply, and supporting sustainable urban-rural integration.