FSAUA: A framework for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty assessment in historical and forecasted land use maps.

Land change modelers often create future maps using reference land use map. However, future land use maps may mislead decision-makers, who are often unaware of the sensitivity and the uncertainty in land use maps due to error in data. Since most metrics that communicate uncertainty require using reference land use data to calculate accuracy, the assessment of uncertainty becomes challenging when no reference land use map for future is available. This study aims to develop a new conceptual framework for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty assessment (FSAUA) which compares multiple maps under various data error scenarios. FSAUA performs sensitivity analyses in land use maps using a reference map and assess uncertainty in predicted maps. FSAUA was applied using three well-known land change models (ANN, CART and MARS) in Delhi, India. FSAUA was found to be a practical tool for communicating the uncertainty with end-users who develop reliable planning decisions.