The Double-Edged Effects of IDA Aid on Conflict and Governance: Policy Insights for Smarter Development Assistance

Sofia Tsarsitalidou

The Double-Edged Effects of IDA Aid on Conflict and Governance: Policy Insights for Smarter Development Assistance

Sofia Tsarsitalidou

Résultats de recherche: Autre contribution

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Résumé

langue originale	Anglais
Editeur	LISER
Nombre de pages	7
Lieu de publication	Esch-sur-Alzette
état	Publié - 10 déc. 2025
Modification externe	Oui

Série de publications

Nom	Policy Brief
Editeur	LISER
Numéro	16
ISSN (Electronique)	2716-7437

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@misc{a9199acd8a054e868da6ee78b5f87dc5,

title = "The Double-Edged Effects of IDA Aid on Conflict and Governance: Policy Insights for Smarter Development Assistance",

abstract = "This study uncovers the paradoxical political consequences of the World Bank{\textquoteright}s concessional aid through the International Development Association (IDA). Using a regression discontinuity design based on IDA{\textquoteright}s income eligibility threshold, the study shows that while IDA assistance reduces public protests and mass mobilization in recipient countries, it simultaneously increases elite-driven violence such as purges, coups, and political assassinations. In the short run, aid inflows weaken institutional quality by intensifying competition for rents, but over time these pressures contribute to gradual institutional strengthening as governance adapts. The findings highlight the double-edged nature of development assistance: it can buy social peace yet fuel political aggression, underscoring the need for transparency, oversight, and governance safeguards—particularly in the first years after aid disbursement.",

keywords = "IDA aid, conflict, governance, RDD, fragile states",

author = "Sofia Tsarsitalidou",

year = "2025",

month = dec,

day = "10",

language = "English",

series = "Policy Brief",

publisher = "LISER",

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T1 - The Double-Edged Effects of IDA Aid on Conflict and Governance: Policy Insights for Smarter Development Assistance

AU - Tsarsitalidou, Sofia

PY - 2025/12/10

Y1 - 2025/12/10

N2 - This study uncovers the paradoxical political consequences of the World Bank’s concessional aid through the International Development Association (IDA). Using a regression discontinuity design based on IDA’s income eligibility threshold, the study shows that while IDA assistance reduces public protests and mass mobilization in recipient countries, it simultaneously increases elite-driven violence such as purges, coups, and political assassinations. In the short run, aid inflows weaken institutional quality by intensifying competition for rents, but over time these pressures contribute to gradual institutional strengthening as governance adapts. The findings highlight the double-edged nature of development assistance: it can buy social peace yet fuel political aggression, underscoring the need for transparency, oversight, and governance safeguards—particularly in the first years after aid disbursement.

AB - This study uncovers the paradoxical political consequences of the World Bank’s concessional aid through the International Development Association (IDA). Using a regression discontinuity design based on IDA’s income eligibility threshold, the study shows that while IDA assistance reduces public protests and mass mobilization in recipient countries, it simultaneously increases elite-driven violence such as purges, coups, and political assassinations. In the short run, aid inflows weaken institutional quality by intensifying competition for rents, but over time these pressures contribute to gradual institutional strengthening as governance adapts. The findings highlight the double-edged nature of development assistance: it can buy social peace yet fuel political aggression, underscoring the need for transparency, oversight, and governance safeguards—particularly in the first years after aid disbursement.

KW - IDA aid

KW - conflict

KW - governance

KW - RDD

KW - fragile states

M3 - Other contribution

T3 - Policy Brief

PB - LISER

CY - Esch-sur-Alzette

ER -

The Double-Edged Effects of IDA Aid on Conflict and Governance: Policy Insights for Smarter Development Assistance

Résumé

Série de publications

Collections du LISER

Accès au document

Projets

CAIPD 24-28: Cellule d'analyse d'impact des politiques de développement

Publications

Bridging Gaps in Antenatal Care in Africa: From Challenges to Policy Solutions

Development aid and migration in Senegal: How local employment projects shape mobility

Développer l'accès à l'électricité des ménages

Les effets de la fréquentation préscolaire sur développement cognitif et psychomoteur des enfants au Sénégal

Developing Scalable Pathways for International Migration: Harnessing “Triple Wins” for Global Economic Progress

Contient cette citation