TY - JOUR
T1 - Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography
AU - Dao, Thu Hien
AU - Docquier, Frédéric
AU - Maurel, Mathilde
AU - Schaus, Pierre
PY - 2021/5
Y1 - 2021/5
N2 - This paper sheds light on the global migration patterns of the past 40 years, and produces migration projections for the 21st century. To do this, we build a simple model of the world economy, and we parameterize it to match the economic and socio-demographic characteristics of the world in the year 2010. We conduct backcasting and nowcasting exercises, which demonstrate that our model fits very well the past and ongoing trends in international migration, and that historical trends were mostly governed by demographic changes. Then, we describe a set of migration projections for the 21st century. In line with the backcasts, our world migration prospects are mainly governed by socio-demographic changes. Using immigration restrictions or development policies to curb these pressures requires sealing borders or triggering unprecedented economic takeoffs in migrants’ countries of origin. Increasing migration is thus a likely phenomenon for the 21st century.
AB - This paper sheds light on the global migration patterns of the past 40 years, and produces migration projections for the 21st century. To do this, we build a simple model of the world economy, and we parameterize it to match the economic and socio-demographic characteristics of the world in the year 2010. We conduct backcasting and nowcasting exercises, which demonstrate that our model fits very well the past and ongoing trends in international migration, and that historical trends were mostly governed by demographic changes. Then, we describe a set of migration projections for the 21st century. In line with the backcasts, our world migration prospects are mainly governed by socio-demographic changes. Using immigration restrictions or development policies to curb these pressures requires sealing borders or triggering unprecedented economic takeoffs in migrants’ countries of origin. Increasing migration is thus a likely phenomenon for the 21st century.
KW - International migration
KW - Migration prospects
KW - World economy
KW - Inequality
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/4747c64f-6e95-334e-8671-39ac51970fb7/
UR - https://liser.elsevierpure.com/en/publications/1a9abb5c-8577-428a-b967-94d7fe163e93
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85099480263&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10290-020-00402-1
DO - 10.1007/s10290-020-00402-1
M3 - Article
SN - 1610-2878
VL - 157
SP - 417
EP - 449
JO - Review of World Economics
JF - Review of World Economics
IS - 2
ER -