Old age takes its toll: Long-run projections of health-related public expenditure in Luxembourg

Gastón A. Giordana; María Noel Pi Alperin

doi:10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101262

Old age takes its toll: Long-run projections of health-related public expenditure in Luxembourg

Gastón A. Giordana, María Noel Pi Alperin

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Abstract

This paper simulates long-term trends in Luxembourg’s public expenditure on healthcare and on long-term care. We combine population projections with micro-simulations of individuals’ health status that account for their demographic, socio-economic characteristics and their childhood circumstances. Model equations estimated on data from the SHARE survey and from several branches of Social Security provide a rich framework to study policy-relevant applications. We simulate public expenditure on healthcare and long-term care under different scenarios to evaluate the separate contributions of population ageing, costs of producing health-related services, and the distribution of health status across age cohorts. Results suggest that rising per capita expenditure on healthcare will mostly result from production costs, while rising expenditure on long-term care will mostly reflect population ageing.

Original language	English
Article number	101262
Journal	Economics and Human Biology
Volume	50
Early online date	3 Jun 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101262
Publication status	Published - Aug 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This paper uses data from SHARE Waves 5 and 6, (10.6103/SHARE.w5.700, 10.6103/SHARE.w6.700), see Börsch-Supan et al. (2013) for methodological details. The SHARE data collection has been funded by the European Commission through FP5 ( QLK6-CT-2001–00360 ), FP6 (SHARE-I3: RII-CT-2006–062193 , COMPARE: CIT5-CT-2005–028857 , SHARELIFE: CIT4-CT-2006–028812 ), FP7 (SHARE-PREP: GA N°211909 , SHARE-LEAP: GA N°227822 , SHARE M4: GA N°261982 ) and Horizon 2020 (SHARE-DEV3: GA N°676536 , SERISS: GA N°654221 ) and by DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion. Additional funding from the German Ministry of Education and Research , the Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science , the U.S. National Institute on Ageing ( U01_AG09740–13S2 , P01_AG005842 , P01_AG08291 , P30_AG12815 , R21_AG025169 , Y1-AG-4553–01 , IAG_BSR06–11 , OGHA_04–064 , HHSN271201300071C ) and from various national funding sources is gratefully acknowledged (see www.share-project.org). We give special thanks to Magali Perquin for her advice concerning the medical treatments to include in the paper and Paolo Guarda for his careful reading and detailed suggestions. In addition, we would like to thank Erik Walch, Jean-Pierre Schoder, Sergio Marx and participants at a BCL internal seminar for useful comments.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier B.V.

Keywords

Ageing
Dynamic micro-simulation
Healthcare
Health-related public expenditure
Health status
Long-term care
Luxembourg
SHARE

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10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101262

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570677X23000436

Cite this

@article{2eea4a12efe9430bbcacb3b9f2567e49,

title = "Old age takes its toll: Long-run projections of health-related public expenditure in Luxembourg",

abstract = "This paper simulates long-term trends in Luxembourg{\textquoteright}s public expenditure on healthcare and on long-term care. We combine population projections with micro-simulations of individuals{\textquoteright} health status that account for their demographic, socio-economic characteristics and their childhood circumstances. Model equations estimated on data from the SHARE survey and from several branches of Social Security provide a rich framework to study policy-relevant applications. We simulate public expenditure on healthcare and long-term care under different scenarios to evaluate the separate contributions of population ageing, costs of producing health-related services, and the distribution of health status across age cohorts. Results suggest that rising per capita expenditure on healthcare will mostly result from production costs, while rising expenditure on long-term care will mostly reflect population ageing.",

keywords = "Ageing, Dynamic micro-simulation, Healthcare, Health-related public expenditure, Health status, Long-term care, Luxembourg, SHARE",

author = "Giordana, {Gast{\'o}n A.} and {Pi Alperin}, {Mar{\'i}a Noel}",

note = "Funding Information: This paper uses data from SHARE Waves 5 and 6, (10.6103/SHARE.w5.700, 10.6103/SHARE.w6.700), see B{\"o}rsch-Supan et al. (2013) for methodological details. The SHARE data collection has been funded by the European Commission through FP5 ( QLK6-CT-2001–00360 ), FP6 (SHARE-I3: RII-CT-2006–062193 , COMPARE: CIT5-CT-2005–028857 , SHARELIFE: CIT4-CT-2006–028812 ), FP7 (SHARE-PREP: GA N°211909 , SHARE-LEAP: GA N°227822 , SHARE M4: GA N°261982 ) and Horizon 2020 (SHARE-DEV3: GA N°676536 , SERISS: GA N°654221 ) and by DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion. Additional funding from the German Ministry of Education and Research , the Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science , the U.S. National Institute on Ageing ( U01_AG09740–13S2 , P01_AG005842 , P01_AG08291 , P30_AG12815 , R21_AG025169 , Y1-AG-4553–01 , IAG_BSR06–11 , OGHA_04–064 , HHSN271201300071C ) and from various national funding sources is gratefully acknowledged (see www.share-project.org). We give special thanks to Magali Perquin for her advice concerning the medical treatments to include in the paper and Paolo Guarda for his careful reading and detailed suggestions. In addition, we would like to thank Erik Walch, Jean-Pierre Schoder, Sergio Marx and participants at a BCL internal seminar for useful comments. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 Elsevier B.V.",

year = "2023",

month = aug,

doi = "10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101262",

language = "English",

volume = "50",

journal = "Economics and Human Biology",

issn = "1570-677X",

publisher = "Elsevier",

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T1 - Old age takes its toll: Long-run projections of health-related public expenditure in Luxembourg

AU - Giordana, Gastón A.

AU - Pi Alperin, María Noel

N1 - Funding Information: This paper uses data from SHARE Waves 5 and 6, (10.6103/SHARE.w5.700, 10.6103/SHARE.w6.700), see Börsch-Supan et al. (2013) for methodological details. The SHARE data collection has been funded by the European Commission through FP5 ( QLK6-CT-2001–00360 ), FP6 (SHARE-I3: RII-CT-2006–062193 , COMPARE: CIT5-CT-2005–028857 , SHARELIFE: CIT4-CT-2006–028812 ), FP7 (SHARE-PREP: GA N°211909 , SHARE-LEAP: GA N°227822 , SHARE M4: GA N°261982 ) and Horizon 2020 (SHARE-DEV3: GA N°676536 , SERISS: GA N°654221 ) and by DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion. Additional funding from the German Ministry of Education and Research , the Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science , the U.S. National Institute on Ageing ( U01_AG09740–13S2 , P01_AG005842 , P01_AG08291 , P30_AG12815 , R21_AG025169 , Y1-AG-4553–01 , IAG_BSR06–11 , OGHA_04–064 , HHSN271201300071C ) and from various national funding sources is gratefully acknowledged (see www.share-project.org). We give special thanks to Magali Perquin for her advice concerning the medical treatments to include in the paper and Paolo Guarda for his careful reading and detailed suggestions. In addition, we would like to thank Erik Walch, Jean-Pierre Schoder, Sergio Marx and participants at a BCL internal seminar for useful comments. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Elsevier B.V.

PY - 2023/8

Y1 - 2023/8

N2 - This paper simulates long-term trends in Luxembourg’s public expenditure on healthcare and on long-term care. We combine population projections with micro-simulations of individuals’ health status that account for their demographic, socio-economic characteristics and their childhood circumstances. Model equations estimated on data from the SHARE survey and from several branches of Social Security provide a rich framework to study policy-relevant applications. We simulate public expenditure on healthcare and long-term care under different scenarios to evaluate the separate contributions of population ageing, costs of producing health-related services, and the distribution of health status across age cohorts. Results suggest that rising per capita expenditure on healthcare will mostly result from production costs, while rising expenditure on long-term care will mostly reflect population ageing.

AB - This paper simulates long-term trends in Luxembourg’s public expenditure on healthcare and on long-term care. We combine population projections with micro-simulations of individuals’ health status that account for their demographic, socio-economic characteristics and their childhood circumstances. Model equations estimated on data from the SHARE survey and from several branches of Social Security provide a rich framework to study policy-relevant applications. We simulate public expenditure on healthcare and long-term care under different scenarios to evaluate the separate contributions of population ageing, costs of producing health-related services, and the distribution of health status across age cohorts. Results suggest that rising per capita expenditure on healthcare will mostly result from production costs, while rising expenditure on long-term care will mostly reflect population ageing.

KW - Ageing

KW - Dynamic micro-simulation

KW - Healthcare

KW - Health-related public expenditure

KW - Health status

KW - Long-term care

KW - Luxembourg

KW - SHARE

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UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/d8c08d38-8c62-36dd-87e6-b6b8cfb11dc6/

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DO - 10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101262

M3 - Article

C2 - 37311273

SN - 1570-677X

VL - 50

JO - Economics and Human Biology

JF - Economics and Human Biology

M1 - 101262

ER -

Old age takes its toll: Long-run projections of health-related public expenditure in Luxembourg

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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