TY - JOUR
T1 - Old age takes its toll: Long-run projections of health-related public expenditure in Luxembourg
AU - Giordana, Gastón A.
AU - Pi Alperin, María Noel
N1 - Funding Information:
This paper uses data from SHARE Waves 5 and 6, (10.6103/SHARE.w5.700, 10.6103/SHARE.w6.700), see Börsch-Supan et al. (2013) for methodological details. The SHARE data collection has been funded by the European Commission through FP5 ( QLK6-CT-2001–00360 ), FP6 (SHARE-I3: RII-CT-2006–062193 , COMPARE: CIT5-CT-2005–028857 , SHARELIFE: CIT4-CT-2006–028812 ), FP7 (SHARE-PREP: GA N°211909 , SHARE-LEAP: GA N°227822 , SHARE M4: GA N°261982 ) and Horizon 2020 (SHARE-DEV3: GA N°676536 , SERISS: GA N°654221 ) and by DG Employment, Social Affairs & Inclusion. Additional funding from the German Ministry of Education and Research , the Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science , the U.S. National Institute on Ageing ( U01_AG09740–13S2 , P01_AG005842 , P01_AG08291 , P30_AG12815 , R21_AG025169 , Y1-AG-4553–01 , IAG_BSR06–11 , OGHA_04–064 , HHSN271201300071C ) and from various national funding sources is gratefully acknowledged (see www.share-project.org). We give special thanks to Magali Perquin for her advice concerning the medical treatments to include in the paper and Paolo Guarda for his careful reading and detailed suggestions. In addition, we would like to thank Erik Walch, Jean-Pierre Schoder, Sergio Marx and participants at a BCL internal seminar for useful comments.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2023/8
Y1 - 2023/8
N2 - This paper simulates long-term trends in Luxembourg’s public expenditure on healthcare and on long-term care. We combine population projections with micro-simulations of individuals’ health status that account for their demographic, socio-economic characteristics and their childhood circumstances. Model equations estimated on data from the SHARE survey and from several branches of Social Security provide a rich framework to study policy-relevant applications. We simulate public expenditure on healthcare and long-term care under different scenarios to evaluate the separate contributions of population ageing, costs of producing health-related services, and the distribution of health status across age cohorts. Results suggest that rising per capita expenditure on healthcare will mostly result from production costs, while rising expenditure on long-term care will mostly reflect population ageing.
AB - This paper simulates long-term trends in Luxembourg’s public expenditure on healthcare and on long-term care. We combine population projections with micro-simulations of individuals’ health status that account for their demographic, socio-economic characteristics and their childhood circumstances. Model equations estimated on data from the SHARE survey and from several branches of Social Security provide a rich framework to study policy-relevant applications. We simulate public expenditure on healthcare and long-term care under different scenarios to evaluate the separate contributions of population ageing, costs of producing health-related services, and the distribution of health status across age cohorts. Results suggest that rising per capita expenditure on healthcare will mostly result from production costs, while rising expenditure on long-term care will mostly reflect population ageing.
KW - Ageing
KW - Dynamic micro-simulation
KW - Healthcare
KW - Health-related public expenditure
KW - Health status
KW - Long-term care
KW - Luxembourg
KW - SHARE
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85163122875&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/d8c08d38-8c62-36dd-87e6-b6b8cfb11dc6/
U2 - 10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101262
DO - 10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101262
M3 - Article
C2 - 37311273
SN - 1570-677X
VL - 50
JO - Economics and Human Biology
JF - Economics and Human Biology
M1 - 101262
ER -